
USDA's March WASDE raised its 2020 milk production forecast to 222.3 billion pounds on larger expected cow numbers. Projected 2020 prices for cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk were cut, leaving the Class III forecast at $16.65/cwt and Class IV at $15.75/cwt.
Higher milk supply and lower projected product prices point to weaker farm milk prices in 2020, which lowers the cost outlook for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.