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The May WASDE raised 2020 US milk production forecasts by about 200 million pounds to 222.4 billion. Cheese and whey price forecasts rose while butter and nonfat dry milk forecasts fell, and the Class III forecast rose 60 cents to $13.35/cwt.
Higher milk output forecasts are bearish for milk prices, while the mixed product price revisions show a split outlook for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.