
USDA's delayed December 2018 data show U.S. milk production rose 0.9% year over year to 217.5 billion pounds, with cow numbers down for a fourth straight month. Milk production per cow averaged 23,173 pounds in 2018, up 232 pounds from 2017.
Milk prices were lower, and MPP-Dairy margin payments were set for insured producers at the $8/cwt level.
Slowing milk output and a shrinking herd tighten supply over time, but lower milk prices in the near term reflect weak demand and surplus butterfat. This weighs on Class III milk values and feed demand from dairy herds.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.