◂ Event Timeline

Dec 20, 2025REPORTUS

USDA estimates milk production upward trend to end

USDA left its 2025 milk production estimate unchanged at 231.4 billion pounds and cut its 2026 estimate to 234.1 billion pounds. The Class III price forecast was lowered on recent cheese weakness, while butter exports were raised.

WHY IT MATTERS

Slower projected 2026 output growth offers mild support, but weaker cheese prices still point to lower Class III milk values.

AFFECTSMilk (Class III)▼

SOURCE
dairystar.comLee MielkeDec 20, 2025

Price reaction & history

Milk (Class III)▼bearishSO FAR1d 0.0%5d +0.6%20d -6.5%

After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.

Jul 25, 2026USDA raises milk production estimates - Dairy Star-0.8%
Dec 11, 2024USDA Provides Milk Production Estimates for the Next Ten Years - Dairy Herd-0.5%
Jan 24, 2026USDA increases 2026 milk production forecast - Dairy Star-0.5%
Jul 13, 2023USDA Lowers 2023 All-Milk Price Forecast, Milk Production Estimates Remain the Same - Dairy Herd-0.2%
Feb 8, 2018USDA cuts milk production, price estimates - Brownfield Ag News-0.9%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Milk (Class III) MILK · GP ▸

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