
USDA's July WASDE cut its 2023 all-milk price forecast by 40 cents to $19.55 per cwt, with the Class III price lowered 65 cents to $16.05. Milk production for 2023 was left unchanged at 228.4 billion lb, while the 2024 production forecast was reduced by 200 million lb.
A lower USDA price outlook signals continued weak dairy farm revenue and pressure on milk demand for dairy-based feed and ingredients. Lower milk prices tend to weigh on the Class III and Class IV benchmarks.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.