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The USDA's June 2020 WASDE raised world wheat production, pushing Chicago, Kansas and Minneapolis wheat futures lower. Soybean US carryout came in below expectations, China's soybean imports were raised 2 Mt to 94 Mt, and corn carryout was slightly tighter than expected.
Brent crude fell US$3.18 to $38.55 on an unexpected inventory build.
Higher world wheat output is bearish for wheat prices, while tighter US soybean and corn carryout supports those markets. The 30 June stocks and acreage report is the next key catalyst.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorJun 12, 2020After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
