US wheat futures dropped sharply after a USDA report showed spring wheat production at 504 million bushels, above the expected 475 million. Winter wheat production was trimmed 37 million bushels, and US wheat carryout was cut slightly to 890 million bushels.
Russian harvest delays were noted but had not yet lifted markets.
Larger US spring wheat supply and a slightly tighter winter wheat balance push wheat prices lower, while Russian harvest delays offer some underlying support.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.