The March 11 WASDE raised world wheat ending stocks by 2.5 million tonnes, driven by higher production in Australia, Argentina and Ukraine, and lifted U.S. wheat stocks from 794 to 819 million bushels. World soybean ending stocks fell from 124.3 to 121.4 million tonnes on higher global crush, and canola fell after new China tariffs.
Bigger world wheat stocks from Australia and Ukraine add export supply and pressure wheat prices, while the drop in soybean stocks is supportive for soy meal demand.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.