July CBOT wheat traded in a 52-cent weekly range and closed lower at 499.50c/bu after the June USDA WASDE cut Russia's 2018/19 wheat crop by 3.5 Mt to 68.5 Mt. Corn also rose initially on the report before markets reversed.
A cut to Russian wheat output, the largest exporter, supports world wheat prices and raises the cost of wheat used in feed rations, though the market reaction faded quickly.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.