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ABARES initial estimates put Australia's 2026-27 winter crop at 54.5 million tonnes, 21% below 2025-26. Wheat area is forecast at 10.9 million hectares, down 12%, while barley area rises 4% to 5 million hectares.
High fertiliser and fuel costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are weighing on grower returns.
A sharp fall in Australian wheat and canola output reduces export competition, supporting world wheat and canola meal prices. The shift toward barley could partly offset the drop in barley's feed-grain supply.
graincentral.comJun 1, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
