
ABARES cut its 2023-24 Australian wheat forecast to 25.4Mt from 26.2Mt in June, while raising barley to 10.5Mt and canola to 5.2Mt. Total winter crop output is forecast at 45.2Mt, down 34% from the record 2022-23 crop and below the 10-year average.
A smaller Australian wheat and barley crop tightens export supplies available to Asian buyers, supporting prices for feed grains and wheat substitutes.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.