ABARES cut its estimate for Australia's 2019/20 wheat crop to 15.165 million tonnes, down 4% from 15.852Mt in December, citing lower yields in NSW, South Australia and Western Australia. It also raised its barley estimate 2% to 8.851Mt on a larger Victorian crop and higher Victorian and Tasmanian yields.
A smaller Australian wheat crop tightens exportable supplies and supports wheat prices in export markets. The larger barley crop offers some offset for feed grain buyers.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.