ABARES' March quarter report forecasts the world wheat indicator price to average US$225 per tonne in 2020-21, up from US$220. The increase reflects lower wheat output expected in the Black Sea, EU and US, while world wheat production is forecast to rise to about 766 million tonnes.
Lower production in major exporting regions tightens global wheat balances and supports prices, although the forecast gain is modest.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.