
The Mexican peso closed the week of May 21 down 0.53% near 19.97 per dollar, its first weekly loss after two weeks of gains. The decline followed Fed minutes signaling possible early tapering and a record US services PMI, while WTI fell 2.48% and soybeans fell 3.89% and wheat 4.88%.
Expectations of earlier Fed tightening strengthen the dollar and weigh on dollar-priced grains and oilseeds. Lower crude prices also reduce input costs for biofuel-linked oilseed demand.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.