Valero expects favorable refining margins for the rest of 2021 and plans to roughly quadruple renewable diesel output over the next few years. The company reports US gasoline and diesel demand above 2019 levels and product exports at their highest since 2018.
Expanding renewable diesel capacity increases demand for soybean oil and other vegetable oil feedstocks, supporting soy oil prices and reducing meal-to-oil balance for crushers.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.