At GEAPS Exchange 2025, John Mulholland of N. Hunt Moore and Associates described rapid expansion in US oilseed crushing, projected to exceed 9 million bushels per day by 2027-28 at full capacity.
He said about 49% of soybean oil now goes into fuels, driving crush growth.
Expanding crush capacity driven by biofuel demand raises meal output and supports soybean oil demand, shaping the balance between soybean meal and oil prices.
After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 28 past bullish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (32% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.8%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.