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Climate Impact Company forecasts a wetter-than-normal Brazil climate for late 2021, linked to a La Niña developing around the fourth quarter and unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The firm notes Brazil has been in a long-term drought pattern and that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is also forming.
A wetter Brazil season would favor planting and yields for the 2021-22 soybean and corn crops, which could ease supply concerns and weigh on prices. The forecast is a model-based outlook and may change.
climateimpactcompany.comScott YuknisJul 15, 2021After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
