
Delayed 2023/24 soybean planting caused by drought in central Brazil and extreme rain in the South pushed back the safrinha corn window. Corn prices have fallen 33% year on year to their lowest since 2020, squeezing margins in Mato Grosso.
A missed planting window and low prices push producers toward sorghum and other crops, which can tighten or loosen second-crop corn supply and weigh on corn and sorghum prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.