
Southern Brazilian farmer Nelson Paludo expects a good Paraná soybean crop, with yields potentially reaching 67 bushels per acre versus 53 last season. Cold snaps slowed development, and dry spells are hurting some neighbours in localised areas.
Better-than-expected yields in Brazil's second-largest soybean state point to larger export supplies, which weighs on soybean and soymeal prices. Localised dry spells limit the downside but do not offset the broader yield outlook.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.