
Southern Brazil is reporting a record soybean harvest after two consecutive drought years in the south and neighboring Argentina. The strong southern yields are offsetting crop losses in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top soybean state, where drought hit the center-west.
A record southern Brazil crop adds to export supply and helps cushion the shortfall in Mato Grosso, which limits upward pressure on soybean and meal prices.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.