Brazil's soybean harvest reached 35% nationally, about 2% behind the five-year average, with Mato Grosso at 71% and yields good but below last year. Safrinha corn planting reached 63% nationally, while Argentina's crop conditions are described as less favorable.
Solid Brazilian soybean and corn progress keeps export supplies flowing, which is bearish for soybean and corn prices, while Argentine weakness supports offsetting demand for South American meal and oil.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.