
Rainfall in the week before the report eased climate stress on Brazil's 2024 second-crop corn. A significant drought pocket remained in the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul, probably with production losses, while Mato Grosso had good rain and an early harvest projected.
Brazil needs to export nearly 40 million tons this business year, and export pace is so far behind that.
Improved moisture across most second-crop regions lowers the risk of a major Brazilian corn shortfall, which weighs on prices, though losses in Mato Grosso do Sul and late plantings still add some support.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.