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ING analysts argue the market has become too hawkish on the ECB, and that the euro may give back recent gains. They expect the ECB to keep front-loading asset purchases and avoid hints of tapering at its meeting that week.
Expectations of a less hawkish ECB would weaken the euro against the dollar, supporting dollar-priced commodities marginally. The forecast is a currency view with little direct effect on feed supply or demand.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Carsten BrzeskiSep 7, 2021After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
