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ING says the falling euro is not the ECB's main concern ahead of a June rate cut. US inflation came in higher than expected, which has led some ECB hawks to reconsider the June cut.
Stronger US inflation supports the dollar and raises the cost of dollar-priced imports for euro-area feed buyers, while the rate outlook shapes currency-driven price swings.
think.ing.comCarsten Brzeski, Francesco PesoleApr 17, 2024After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
