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The ECB delivered a hawkish message at its December meeting, and the dollar rallied against high-beta commodity currencies. Overnight deposit rates in the US were 4.35% at the time, and the yield curves in the US and euro zone stayed inverted.
Slowdown fears and a stronger dollar tend to weigh on commodity prices and make dollar-priced grain and oilseeds less attractive to importers. The pressure is mainly through currency and growth expectations.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek TaborskyDec 16, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
