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ING analysis says the ECB's March 12 package was modest, with no rate cut and only muted quantitative easing. The analysis says the lack of conviction from ECB President Christine Lagarde, including her remark that the bank was not there to close spreads, reintroduced risk premium into the euro.
The note argues that the ball is now in the Federal Reserve's court.
Weaker euro sentiment means a firmer dollar, which tends to weigh on dollar-priced commodities and raises import costs for euro zone buyers. The effect on feed markets is indirect and depends on whether the Federal Reserve responds.
think.ing.comMar 12, 2020After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
