Loading…
ING expects ECB President Lagarde to strike a neutral tone at the October meeting, tempering market hawkish expectations. Energy prices had risen, and markets were pricing a 10bp deposit rate hike by late 2022.
A neutral ECB message would reduce hawkish rate pricing and could leave the euro weaker, since EUR/USD already looks overvalued in the short term.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Carsten BrzeskiOct 27, 2021After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
