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An AP Q&A explains that La Niña years have historically caused more agricultural and drought damage in the United States than El Niño or neutral years, citing a 1999 study that estimated $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion in losses. The article focuses on drought risk in the parched western US.
Historical US crop losses in La Niña years support a weather risk premium for corn, wheat and feed grains, though the article offers no new supply data.
apnews.comSeth BorensteinOct 14, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
