
Ukraine's 2025-26 marketing year started slowly, with July agricultural exports down sharply year on year as wheat, barley and rapeseed harvests lagged and corn shipments fell late in the prior season. Wheat exports were well below the prior year's level, and Egypt was the largest buyer.
Smaller export availability from Ukraine due to a delayed harvest supports wheat, barley and corn prices in the near term.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.