
Ukraine has kept exporting grain from its Black Sea ports since the Black Sea Grain Initiative ended in July 2023, but stockpiles are depleting. Wheat export seasonality is returning to normal this year.
IGC forecasts Ukraine's corn production 20% lower year on year.
Lower Ukrainian corn output and shrinking stocks reduce export availability, which supports corn prices and feed costs in the EU and other importing regions.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.