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AEGIC economist Ross Kingwell says Ukrainian grain exports remain constrained and the upcoming summer crop could be the smallest in twelve years. Before the 2022 invasion Ukraine exported over 60 million tonnes of grain annually, about 10% of world trade, and the 2022 grain deal restored exports near pre-war levels before its collapse.
A small Ukrainian harvest and constrained exports would tighten global wheat and corn supplies and support prices, especially in Asian import markets.
aegic.org.auApr 16, 2024After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
