A series of heatwaves in June and July across western, central and southern Europe shortened grain development and accelerated harvest. The European Commission lowered its yield outlook for all crops in its July report, and EU corn is forecast to be the smallest since 2017 at under 50 million tonnes.
Losses concentrated in corn and a downgraded EU crop outlook tighten feed grain supplies and support European and world prices, especially if summer crop cuts deepen.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.