PIRSA's July report forecasts South Australian wheat at 3.95Mt, below the five-year average of 4.91Mt, on a 15% area cut and dry autumn conditions. The state barley forecast of 1.80Mt is also below its five-year average of 2.08Mt.
Lower South Australian wheat and barley output adds to the national shortfall and supports Australian feed grain prices. Export buyers may need to source more from Western Australia or overseas.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.