
Paradigm Futures forecasts Ukraine's MY 2024/25 grain production 13% lower than the prior year, with corn down 24% to 24.6 MMT. Export estimates were cut 26%, and barley output is seen falling 3% to 5.9 MMT.
A sharp cut in Ukrainian corn supply reduces Black Sea feed grain availability and supports corn and barley prices, especially for importers in the EU and Middle East.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.