
Ukraine's first deputy agriculture minister said 2024/25 grain exports are likely to fall to about 40 million tons from almost 51 million in 2023/24 due to a smaller harvest. Heatwaves sharply reduced corn and late-crop yields, and carryover stocks are absent.
Planned exports are 16.2 million tons of wheat and 21.7 million tons of corn.
A roughly 20% cut in Ukrainian exports tightens global wheat and corn supply, supporting prices for feed grains.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.