A US crop tour found northern Kansas wheat yield potential down just over 10% year on year due to drought and freeze. Statistics Canada reported plans for 25.3 million acres of wheat, up 12.8%, while Paris wheat hit a six-month high on dry Black Sea and European weather.
Lower Kansas yields and Black Sea dryness tighten global wheat supplies, supporting prices that compete with corn in feed rations.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.