
Argentina is planting the least soybean area in a decade, with a soy-to-maize-or-wheat ratio falling from 4:4 in 2014 to 1:4 this year. Record maize output of about 54 million tonnes is expected, along with a wheat harvest near 20 million tonnes, as trade incentives and rotation favour other crops.
Lower Argentine soybean area supports soybean and meal prices, while record maize supply adds feed grain availability and pressures corn prices.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.