Thaw in U.S.–China Tariffs Brings Export Boom—but Not a Strategic Reversal

After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 16, 2026China's soybean buying revival boosts US export outlook; tariffs cloud prospects | S&P Global+0.5%
• Sep 24, 2019China gives waivers to importers to buy U.S. soy exempt from tariffs: sources+1.5%
• Dec 19, 2024Exclusive: China's state importer books US soy purchases as tariff threat looms | Reuters+3.8%
• Mar 4, 2019U.S. and China Near a Trade Deal to Drop Tariffs-1.7%
• Oct 5, 2021Is Argentina’s Soy Boom Over? - Transport Energy Strategies-0.6%

After 729 past bullish trade events, CORN moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2021U.S. Corn Exports To China Boom - 2020 Year in Review+0.7%
• Mar 4, 2019U.S. and China Near a Trade Deal to Drop Tariffs-2.2%
• Apr 30, 2020China Boosts Low-Tariff Corn Imports as State Reserves Drop (1)+1.9%
• Oct 27, 2017US export report: China buys soybeans / Spain buys-0.2%
• Mar 10, 2023China props up U.S. corn, soy exports as other buyers stay quieter than usual+1.2%

After 224 past neutral trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jun 28, 2018China to remove tariffs on feed ingredients from 5 countries | Feed Strategy-1.7%
• Oct 26, 2026China’s Soybean Buying Picks Up, But a Tariff Wall Still Blocks Full Trade Recovery-3.6%
• Oct 25, 2023China signs US soy export deals, but unclear if sales will follow | Reuters-0.1%
• Nov 14, 2022Kazakhstan plans to start exporting sunflower meal/cake to China in 2023 – NOPA+0.4%
• Aug 16, 2018US fishmeal producers left exposed by China’s 25% tariff blow - Saving Seafood-2.5%