China's soybean buying revival boosts US export outlook; tariffs cloud prospects

After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 25, 2020China Buying Spree Revives Export Profits for Top Crop Traders - Caixin Global+2.3%
• Sep 25, 2025China says it will resume US soybean purchases following a rollback in tariffs | S&P Global+0.4%
• Oct 27, 2017US export report: China buys soybeans / Spain buys+1.8%
• Jun 12, 2025Thaw in U.S.–China Tariffs Brings Export Boom—but Not a Strategic Reversal+2.3%
• Oct 16, 2018Two Boatloads of U.S. Soybeans on Their Way to China Despite Tariffs - Caixin Global-3.7%

After 342 past bullish trade events, SBM moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Aug 22, 2017Chinese Buyers Ink $1.5 Billion of Contracts Prior to U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange - U.S. Soybean Export Council-0.1%
• Aug 17, 2017Weekly Export Report - China buys more soybeans | Farm Progress-0.4%
• Jun 13, 2024Chinese demand boosts soybean price outlook - Brownfield Ag News-0.9%
• Nov 7, 2020China's Oct soybean imports jump 41% on year on swine fever recovery | S&P Global+1.5%
• Mar 2, 2022EXCLUSIVE China buys U.S. soybeans on good profits, despite peak Brazil export season+5.4%