
Major agricultural commodity traders are earning the highest export profits in years, driven largely by Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans. Gulf elevation margins are near five-year highs as the ADM export terminal is offline for repair until early 2021.
Heavy export sales and a constrained Gulf terminal push up export basis and logistics costs for U.S. corn and soybeans. This supports Gulf cash prices while tightening the flow of exports.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.