
USDA export sales showed China bought a net 16.7 million bushels of old-crop US soybeans in one week, just weeks before the marketing year ends on August 31. Total old-crop sales and shipments exceed USDA's forecast by nearly 50 million bushels, though shipments are running slightly slower than average.
Strong late old-crop Chinese buying tightens nearby US soybean supplies and supports prices. Some of these purchases may shift into new-crop positions, which would support later delivery prices.
After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, SBM moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.