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China bought 1.5 to 2 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans in a week after halting U.S. purchases amid escalating trade tensions. Argentine farmers are withholding beans as a hedge against peso weakness, and Brazilian soybean inventories are projected to fall to a 20-year low of 2.6 million tons by season end.
Heavy Chinese demand drawing down Brazilian stocks raises Brazilian export premiums and tightens global soybean supply, supporting soybean and meal prices while Argentine hoarding restricts available supply.
batimes.com.arLucas RobinsonAug 16, 2019After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
