China is considering allowing large-scale imports of Brazilian soybean meal to ease a domestic shortage. Chinese soybean imports in October fell 19% year on year to 4.14 million mt, the lowest October volume since 2014, and spot soybean meal prices are up about 61% from a year earlier.
Many market participants doubt crushers would import even if approval is granted.
A tight Chinese meal market supports global soybean meal prices, while a possible Brazilian meal import channel could ease demand pressure on Brazilian and Argentine meal exporters if approved.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.