USDA FAS projects China's MY2022/23 corn imports at 18 million tonnes, with China holding only 3.7 MMT of U.S. corn contracts, 70 percent below a year earlier. China agreed to waive a phytosanitary clause to allow more Brazilian corn, with over 130 Brazilian facilities approved.
Sharply lower U.S. corn commitments from China and a shift to Brazilian supply weigh on U.S. corn export prospects and support Brazilian origin basis.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.