
Brazil exported a record 1.1 million tonnes of rice in the first half of 2026, up 83% year over year, according to Abiarroz. The Cepea/Irga-RS paddy indicator reached R$63.30 per 50 kg bag, up 18.4% since the start of 2026.
Strong export demand drains domestic surplus and supports Brazilian producer prices, with the trade surplus of about 400,000 tonnes tightening regional supply.
After 189 past bullish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.