
Argentine soy farmers have sharply reduced sales because they expect the peso to keep falling. At the official rate minus export taxes, selling now would bring only about 45 pesos per dollar.
Buyers and the government are left waiting for export receipts.
Withheld soybean supply from Argentina, the top soymeal exporter, supports soy and meal prices until farmers resume selling.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.