HighLine Grain Growers reviewed the December WASDE, noting unchanged US corn carryout at 1.493 billion bushels and soybean carryout at 340 million. Wheat exports were cut 20 million bushels and US wheat carryout was set at 598 million.
Global wheat stocks rose to 278.18 MMT, driven by Australia, Russia and Canada.
Stable US corn and soybean balances offer no price catalyst for feed buyers, while higher world wheat output is bearish for wheat.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.