The USDA's March WASDE cut the 2021-22 U.S. cotton stocks forecast by 200,000 bales to 3.20 million, and March cotton futures touched a contract high of 18.99 cents per pound. The same report raised U.S. all-wheat stocks by 30 million bushels to 628 million.
Winter wheat seedings were reported at 34.40 million acres, a six-year high.
A smaller cotton crop means less cottonseed available for crushing, which tightens cottonseed meal supply. The wheat stock upgrade is bearish for wheat values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.