
The USDA Grain Transportation Report shows US corn, soybean and wheat stocks 41.6 million tonnes above average as of March 1, with about 60% not yet moved. Rail and barge shipments have been strong since March, and acreage shifts toward soybeans and away from wheat and corn are noted.
Large stocks are bearish for grain prices, but they increase near-term transport demand, supporting barge and rail utilization. Acreage shifts will change future logistics needs.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.