USDA's September Crop Production report forecast a record 16.8 billion bushels of corn and 4.3 billion bushels of soybeans for 2025/26, each up less than 1% from August. The projected corn crop would be 13% larger than last year, while soybeans would be 2% smaller.
The report also estimates the added rail, barge and truck demand this implies.
A record corn crop and larger supplies point to ample feed grain availability and downward pressure on feed prices, while the extra transport demand affects regional basis and freight costs.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.